A 5-Year City-by-City Canadian House Price Forecast (2024)

Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

Table of contents

  • Summary
  • Analyzing the Canadian Real Estate Market: A 5-Year Outlook
  • 5-Year Vancouver Housing Price Prediction
  • 5-Year Canadian Housing Price Prediction for the Greater Toronto Area
  • 5-Year Canadian Housing Price Prediction for Victoria
  • 5-Year Canadian Housing Price Prediction for Calgary
  • 5 Year Edmonton Housing Price Prediction
  • FAQ

Summary

Canada encapsulates a unique blend of metropolitan city life and serene natural landscapes, making it an enticing place to call home. However, predicting property values in the nation for the next half-decade requires carefully analyzing various factors. In this blog, we will delve into a comprehensive review of Canadian house price forecasts, explore the Canadian real estate market with a 5-year outlook, and finally provide a city-by-city 5-year Canadian housing price prediction.

Simple Moves & Storage Predictions

20242025202620272028
Canada Average$703k$738k$775k$814k$855k
Greater Vancouver$1,205k$1,265k$1,329k$1,395k$1,465k
Greater Toronto$1,128k$1,184k$1,244k$1,306k$1,371k
Victoria$868k$911k$957k$1,005k$1,055k
Calgary$587k$616k$647k$680k$714k
Edmonton$390k$410k$430k$451k$474k

A Comprehensive Review of Canadian House Price Forecasts

Over the past decade, Canadian real estate prices have seen a significant surge. From understanding the influence of immigration patterns to analyzing economic growth and interest rates, understanding the “5-Year City by City Canadian House Price Forecast” requires an in-depth look at myriad factors. The continuing trend of urbanization is another aspect influencing the housing prices in major cities. With increasing demand for urban living and a limited land supply, property prices are expected to spike in the coming years.

In recent years, the Canadian housing market has displayed resilience even in the face of economic downturns. This resilience, coupled with optimistic predictions for future economic growth and stability, signifies that the Canadian real estate market will continue to be promising. However, the growth rate in housing prices is anticipated to be slower in the coming years than the rapid inflation seen in the past decade.

Analyzing the Canadian Real Estate Market: A 5-Year Outlook

The next five years in the Canadian real estate market will be marked by steady growth. While the flurry of activity witnessed in 2020, 2021, and 2022 has tapered, the market remained buoyant in 2023-2024. Mortgage rates are predicted to remain relatively low (compared to 12+ percent in the 1980s), creating a favourable environment for potential buyers.

The introduction of tighter mortgage regulations has impacted the affordability factor for many potential buyers. However, these regulations aim to ensure a more stable and sustainable housing market in the long term, lending additional credibility to the prospective “5-Year City by City Canadian House Price Forecast”.

Given the current housing landscape, potential investors and buyers should exercise caution while venturing into the market. A well-researched, strategic approach can help mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities for solid returns. The future of the Canadian real estate market looks promising, and understanding the market dynamics will be crucial for making informed investment decisions.

5-Year Vancouver Housing Price Prediction

Based on the compiled analysis, Vancouver will witness a steady but slower increase in housing prices over the next five years. Combining urbanization trends, resilient economic conditions, low interest rates, and tighter mortgage regulations will collectively influence the housing market.

Due to Vancouver’s geographical constraints and continuous demand spurred by urbanization, the city’s real estate prices will likely continue to rise. However, this growth should be more restrained than the rapidly inflating prices in the last decade. This is attributed to the new mortgage regulations that ensure a more stable and sustainable housing market.

In conclusion, the Vancouver housing market will remain buoyant over the next five years. Potential buyers and investors should remember that while prices are expected to increase, the growth rate will likely be slower than in previous years. A well-researched and strategic approach will be essential for maximizing returns and minimizing potential risks in this promising market.

5-Year Canadian Housing Price Prediction for the Greater Toronto Area

The Greater Toronto Area housing market has been a notable hotspot in Canadian real estate. The trend is projected to continue over the next five years, although the growth rate might be slower than the last decade’s rapid surge.

The ongoing urbanization trend in the region, coupled with limited land supply versus demand for urban living, leads us to predict a continued increase in property prices. The strength of immigration patterns in the GTA will also likely contribute to this trend.

The resilience shown by the Canadian housing market, especially in the face of recent global economic trials, is a positive sign for the GTA’s real estate market. The outlook for the next five years is steady growth, underlined by relative economic stability and low mortgage rates. This favourable context will likely keep the market buoyant despite the slackened pace of property price increases.

However, introducing stricter mortgage regulations may influence housing affordability in the GTA. While it may pose challenges to potential buyers and investors in the short term, it aims to ensure a more stable and sustainable housing market in the long term.

Therefore, prospective buyers and investors in the GTA housing market should approach the market cautiously, considering the slower, albeit stable, growth rate. A thorough understanding of the market dynamics, including immigration trends, economic indicators, mortgage rates, and regulatory environment, will be crucial for making informed investment decisions.

In summary, the outlook for the next five years in the Greater Toronto Area’s real estate market is steady, albeit slower, growth. Introducing stricter mortgage regulations is poised to ensure a stable and sustainable market, making this region an attractive prospect for investment.

5-Year Canadian Housing Price Prediction for Victoria

Given the overview of the Canadian real estate market provided, Victoria’s trajectory of steady growth in the next five years is evident. However, it may be slower than during the rapid inflation experienced in the past decade.

The urbanization trend in Canada, particularly in cities like Victoria, suggests an increased demand for urban living. The city already boasts favourable factors, including a robust economy and a desirable lifestyle. As such, the scarcity of land coupled with an influx of people moving into urban areas can potentially drive up property prices.

Economic variables such as low mortgage rates will continue to support housing affordability in Victoria. Despite the introduction of tighter mortgage regulations, which have added some challenges to potential buyers, the long-term viability of Victoria’s housing market remains secure.

However, it’s important to note that the pace of growth in Victoria’s housing prices may not replicate the dramatic increases seen in recent years. The market will likely be marked by stable, gradual development rather than any dramatic surges in price.

Therefore, over the next five years, it is predicted that the housing prices in Victoria will experience a steady but slower increase. This will be influenced by continued urbanization, economic stability, and the regulations to maintain a sustainable housing market.

Buyers and investors should approach the Victoria market with a well-researched strategy, understanding that while significant growth is not expected, the market still holds potential for strong, steady returns. This builds a promising future for the housing market in Victoria, presenting diverse opportunities for making informed and lucrative investment decisions. In conclusion, Victoria is expected to have a stable and sustainable real estate market with healthy growth over the next five years.

5-Year Canadian Housing Price Prediction for Calgary

Calgary, known for its high quality of life and proximity to the Rockies, is a unique location in the Canadian real estate landscape. With a strong economy rooted in the energy sector, Calgary’s real estate market has demonstrated historical resilience and stability.

Over the next five years, Calgary’s housing market is expected to grow steadily, aligning with the overall momentum in the Canadian real estate market. This growth, however, may not be as rapid as that experienced in the past decade. The city is likely to mirror the national trend of a slowdown in price inflation, mainly due to regulatory measures aimed at stabilization and sustainability.

The urbanization trend sweeping across Canada is also prevalent in Calgary. As demand for urban living continues to grow, Calgary’s housing prices are expected to rise accordingly. The city’s land supply is limited, and this finite resource will further drive property prices.

Mortgage rates are anticipated to stay relatively low, which should aid potential buyers in Calgary. However, stricter mortgage regulations could impact affordability. Buyers and investors must take a cautious and well-informed approach to navigate these changes.

In summary, Calgary’s housing market is set for steady growth over the next five years. While the price inflation rate is expected to slow compared to the past decade, significant factors such as urbanization, low mortgage rates, and limited land supply will likely continue driving prices upwards. Potential buyers and investors in the Calgary market should pay close attention to these dynamics to make the most informed decisions.

5 Year Edmonton Housing Price Prediction

Based on the broader Canadian housing market analysis, Edmonton, a significant city in Canada, is also expected to see a steady rise in housing prices over the next five years. Urbanization’s continued economic growth and low mortgage rates will contribute to the upward trend in Edmonton’s housing prices.

The strong resilience of the Canadian real estate market also signifies a promising outlook for Edmonton’s housing market. Even during economic downturns, the housing market in Edmonton has remained steady, and this trend is anticipated to continue over the next five years.

However, it is essential to note that the increase in housing prices may not be as steep as witnessed in the past decade. The growth rate is expected to slow down due to the introduction of tighter mortgage regulations to ensure a more stable and sustainable housing market.

In conclusion, based on the broader market trends and the city’s economic trajectory, Edmonton’s housing market is set to witness consistent, albeit slower, growth over the next five years. While prospective buyers and investors are advised to exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making decisions, the overall outlook for Edmonton’s housing market over the next five years remains promising.

FAQ

Q: What factors influence the Canadian real estate market?A: The Canadian real estate market is influenced by immigration patterns, economic growth (or lack of!), interest rates, urbanization trends, land availability, and tighter mortgage regulations.

Q: How will Canadian housing prices change over the next five years?A: The Canadian housing prices are expected to grow steadily over the next five years. However, the growth rate is anticipated to be slower than the rapid inflation in the past decade.

Q: How are mortgage regulations expected to impact the Canadian real estate market in the long term?A: While tighter mortgage regulations introduced in recent years have impacted potential buyers’ affordability, they are expected to ensure a more stable and sustainable housing market in the long term.

Q: What is the housing price prediction for Vancouver over the next five years? A: Vancouver’s housing market is predicted to experience a steady but slower increase in housing prices over the next five years.

Q: What is the 5-year forecast for the housing market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)?A: The outlook for the next five years in the Greater Toronto Area’s housing market is steady, albeit slower, growth.

Q: How will Victoria’s housing prices trend over the next five years? A: Victoria’s housing prices are predicted to experience a steady but slower increase over the next five years.

Q: What is Calgary’s 5-year housing price prediction?A: Calgary’s housing market is set for steady growth over the next five years, with an expected rise in housing prices owing to factors such as urbanization, low mortgage rates, and limited land supply.

Q: What is the 5-year housing price prediction for Edmonton?A: Edmonton’s housing market is set to witness consistent but slower growth over the next five years.

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A 5-Year City-by-City Canadian House Price Forecast (2024)

FAQs

What is the next 5 year forecast for real estate in Canada? ›

Analyzing the Canadian Real Estate Market: A 5-Year Outlook

The next five years in the Canadian real estate market will be marked by steady growth. While the flurry of activity witnessed in 2020, 2021, and 2022 has tapered, the market remained buoyant in 2023-2024.

What is the housing market prediction for 2025 in Canada? ›

The CMHC sees existing home prices ripping higher as interest rates are cut. By the end of this year, they expect the average sale price to rise to $711,429—advancing 4.9% from last year. Explosive growth is forecast for 2025 (+9.5%), seen moderating in 2026 (+4.6%).

What is the real estate outlook for Canada in 2024? ›

We project home resales in Canada to rebound 9.2% year-over-year to 484,400 units in 2024—partially reversing massive declines of 25.1% in 2022 and 11.1% in 2023. That number of transactions would still fall short of the level reached before the pandemic in 2019 (490,900 units).

Where are home prices falling the most in Canada? ›

Where Real Estate Prices Are Dropping in Canada 2024
  • Kitchener-Waterloo, ON: 8.9 per cent.
  • London-St. ...
  • Greater Toronto, ON: 7.7 per cent.
  • Hamilton-Burlington, ON: 7.7 per cent.
  • Cambridge, ON: 6.9 per cent.
  • Guelph and District, ON: 6.6 per cent.
  • Niagara Region, ON: 4.4 per cent.
  • Winnipeg, MB: 4.4 per cent.
Jan 15, 2024

How much will houses cost in Canada in 2026? ›

CMHC Forecasts Existing Home Prices Will Surge 20% Higher

They're currently forecasting the average sale price of an existing home will rise 20.1% (+$136,600) by the end of 2026. It goes from $678,300 in 2023 to a whopping $814,900 in 2026.

Is Canada in a housing bubble? ›

Toronto scored the highest in the world in Swiss bank UBS' real estate bubble index in 2022, with Vancouver also scoring among the 10 riskiest cities in the world. The Royal Bank of Canada analysis showed that Canadian housing had become the least affordable that it had ever been.

Will the housing market be better in 2026? ›

However, increases should slow between 2024 and 2026, and rates may even decline in 2027. Among the factors that could impact mortgage rates in the next 5 years are inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic growth. Homebuyers should consider locking in a low mortgage rate now, as rates are expected to rise soon.”

Will houses ever be affordable again in Canada? ›

Canadian Housing Affordability To Improve, But Not Much

Adding, “meaningfully restoring affordability will likely take years in many of Canada's large markets. In this context, we expect the housing market's recovery to be slow at first, before gaining momentum as interest rate cuts accumulate.”

How much will home be worth in 5 years? ›

Based on historical averages of 3.5% of home value growth per year, property prices will rise a total of about 18 to 20% in 5 years. The math is simple: 3.5% a year for 5 years, compounding annually. The key is to do the math as compounding because your home value will continue to build.

Is 2024 the best year to buy a house? ›

Buying a home this year, particularly in early 2024, might mean you're able to beat the rush, as the market could get more crowded if or when rates drop further. Waiting, however, could give you more options to choose from as supply improves, along with the potential for increased mortgage affordability.

What are the prospects for real estate in Canada? ›

A strong outlook and unique factors contributing to Canada's competitive advantage support the long term prospects for the Canadian economy. Real estate debt markets will continue to face challenges in 2024, however, liquidity remains abundant albeit highly selective.

What is the market prediction for 2024? ›

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.

Which city has lowest house prices in Canada? ›

While the provincial averages in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador are lower, the cheapest place to buy a house in Canada in a city of any noteable size is Portage la Prairie, Manitoba, where the average home price is $161,277.

What Canadian city has the highest real estate prices? ›

Vancouver and Toronto stand out as Canada's most expensive cities, driven by robust real estate markets, high living expenses, and a quality of life that attracts people globally. As of 2022, Vancouver's average home price exceeded $1.2 million, while Toronto's surpassed $1 million.

Who is buying all the houses in Canada? ›

Investors were responsible for 30 per cent of home purchases in the first three months of the year, according to data released by the Bank of Canada. That is up from 28 per cent in the first quarter of last year, and 22 per cent in the same period in 2020.

What is the future of real estate in Canada? ›

National Market Report Summary

The average selling price of a home in Canada decreased by 2.4% year-over-year to $733,300 in May 2024. The average selling price of a single-family home in Canada decreased by 2.2% year-over-year to $810,900 in May 2024.

Will house prices keep rising in Canada? ›

On Friday realty firm Royal LePage released an updated forecast predicting that aggregate Canadian home prices will rise nine per cent in the fourth quarter of this year compared with the end of 2023.

What is the housing market forecast for 2024 in Nova Scotia? ›

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures. The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $410,400 in May 2024, a minor increase of 2.6% compared to May 2023.

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