A flight I tracked prices on. (2024)

Sorry guys someone insisted in going political, so I dumped the thread before it got deleted.

So, I will update the prices as they change for the sake of curiosity. And we will avoid any discussion or speculation of why prices might have dropped recently.

That is interesting. Are these prices for the same flights on the same airline(s)? I would have expected the price to steadily increase - that's what I read in the 70's!

As a mile redeemer, I tend to book around 11 months in advance.

I really wanted to throw in a "why not just get fired for a doing a bad job and make millions for not doing it anymore and not worry about the cost" joke but couldn't come up with a good one quickly enough to post.

This is so interesting….

Also — did you purchase this flight at any point along the way? Or are you just tracking for data's sake?

Lufthansa lowest fare class. Add about $300 to upgrade to regular economy. Austin to Budapest on Christmas Day. Return 90 days later.

Never bought my ticket. Got Residency and no longer needed to play pin-the-tail on Schengen.

A few years ago, I think I figured out the pricing model for Cathay Pacific PE for my standard route. It was simple and consistent - seats started at a given price, when the magic number of sales at that price was reached, price moved up to next level. At that point in time, I could usually predict what price I would be paying based on how close to departure I bought my ticket. I don't know what their post-Covid model is or how it varies across routes.

I haven't tracked other airlines or tried to figure out pricing for my current reasonably frequent routes. For me, too much headache and frustration if a target price is missed! Looking at the data above, I suspect one might need a rather sophisticated mathematical model for which price and date alone don't supply all the inputs needed.

Very interesting post and data collection!

The numbers are all from Google and they give you access to the history so all I have to do is look.

I don't think the airlines any longer work off how many seats are left ... well not that alone. I suspect some pretty complex predictions are going on. Then there are "special events" where demand is unexpectedly, or expectedly, driven up or down. Just a giant crop shoot.

What's missing is a sampling of different of kinds of airports:

Huge international hubs like JFK or LAX
Medium international hubs with single airline dominance like MSP or SLC

Also my hunch is you are tracking 2 airports (SAT, AUS) simultaneously and aggregating the result.

I don't think the airlines any longer work off how many seats are left ... well not that alone. I suspect some pretty complex predictions are going on.

I was on a half full flight in July; I am sure they could have sold more seats if wanted. Also someone recently wrote that the pricing algorithms are really primitive and not sophisticated as everyone assumes.

I did a similar tracking of prices to Zurich and Vienna earlier this year and ... same type of results. The swings were quite amazing, and seemingly occurred at random. But the same unique prices would keep appearing and then disappearing, like socks in the washer.

Obviously these guys have rooms full of computers looking at ... well probably looking at other people's prices.

This thread lead to me discovering something interesting....

Due to multiple reasons I won't mention here I fly Delta exclusively. When booking on Delta as long as you are planning to continue to travel, it doesn't matter much if the price goes down because you can cancel and rebook to get the credit for the difference. I also "feel" better when my flights are booked, so I book early, like really early.

I do take a peek at Google flights before booking to get a general idea what prices are on multiple airlines. I sometimes track flights for family members.

I have 2 trips with flights in 2024. CLE-MSP-HND//KIX-HND-MSP-CLE and CLE-ATL-CDG with return. I decided to put a track on these flights so I would know when to rebook them if the price dropped. But my flights are not showing up in Google flights. My return flight from Osaka is only showing flights through Seoul and my flight from ATL to CDG doesn't show up as an option. These flights are still available at the Delta website.

So...I would recommend not relying on Google Flights soley to choose your routes if they are a bit complicated.

So Delta offers free rebooking on its lowest Economy fare?

No, not basic economy. Also a caveat: these free-rebooking-take-the-difference-as-a-credit comments are not always true. For example itineraries that start in Europe or North America YES it's true, if booking trips to Africa or South America as 2 one-ways NO, the return one-way is subject to a $200 change fee. That's on Delta, other airlines also have some restrictions like that. Just a warning, I am running into this for 2024.

Ohhh. Thanks Tom. So tge $932 at day one would probably cost closer to $1182 Evonony (not basic). BUT, when the price dropped to $982 ( the $732 lowest price to date plus $250 upgrade). I could have done a free change and saved $200 which is more or less tge cost of the upgrade meaning i save about $0m?

But to be fair and honest, Delta has one of the more restrictive Basic Economy fares. I couldn't do it cause I want to choose my seat. I love their policy. If you buy 2 tickets they will punish you and put them in different parts of the plane. It's not that they refuse to guarantee keeping the seats together. That I would get. But they are intentionally punatuve which is a bit warped. What do they do when airborne and the 2 people find 2 adjacent seats? Refuse to let you move? Everyone else can move. I have been told they look for center seats for the Basic guys. Not fair to me because I look for rows with empty center seats then i take the aisle seat. So at the last minute they are going to stick someone in it rather than let him has the aisle seat behind me? Sorry Delta. That's nutz.

I don't think Delta is more restrictive in basic economy. A person can still carry on a roller bag for domestic flights. United basic economy for domestic flights is under seat only, no bin access for bags. There must be some kind of "walk of shame" at final boarding where there is a visual confirmation of no roller bags carried on. I don't think Delta plays with the seating, either. I believe that on Delta a person flying basic economy can still switch seat assignments for free after check in, some airlines don't allow that.

Most of us don't have a lot of choice with airlines anyway, we take the nonstop and often that's one airline.

Interesting. So Delta offers free rebooking on its lowest Economy fare?

No, of course not. That wouldn't be basic would it?
I haven't ever cancelled and rebooked yet as I have never seen the price go down.

The flight above has bounced up and down from $1100 to $1300 almost daily for weeks now.

Yesterday, I got a notice from Google to buy now (about $1200) because in 21 hours, the price would go up. It did. Today it is $1533. Flight leaves in 13 days.